On fire

It's hard to write about the devastating fires in the Eastern States.  More than 2000 homes have been destroyed.  Imagine coming back to find a smoking ruin where your house once stood.  Or sitting like a refugee in a reception centre, not even allowed to go back, with only the clothes you are wearing. In Perth, we are far removed from it all, but we see it every night on the TV News. Australia is exhausted.  We just want it all to end.

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Just after I posted this, I received a long message refuting the connection to global warming:

 

Written by Les Crowe.

 
 

I am writing this because I am appalled  at the amount of near-hysterical reaction to the recent NSW and Qld  bush-fires. My reasoning is not so much about the fires or the people  affected, but about whether "man-made" climate change is the underlying  cause. Before I go further, my stance is not so much a personal but  rather a professional reaction. 
 
 
 

I begin by telling those of you who  don't know, for a period of some 40 years, my work as a loss adjuster  was involved with natural disasters, ranging from Cyclone Tracey through  to a lesser involvement in 2009. I was appointed as National Chief Loss  Adjuster, an advisory role, to the Insurance Council of Australia on  all-natural disasters but particularly bush-fires. This role was  interactive with all agencies and spanned more than 10 years. It was  both proactive in planning stages and reactive after the event. I was  heavily involved in the 1983 Victorian fires.
 
 
 

I acknowledge the advice of The Bureau  of Meteorology and the Climate Council, is a reality to the effect the  projected changes to climate, was derived from modelling, which strongly  suggested change would occur unless man-made contribution was reduced.  
 
 
 

Somehow or other, sections of our  communities, have taken control of the scientific argument about the  future and have interpreted it to mean the change has already occurred.  Not so. Records I have seen, actually show that the slight upward trend  in temperatures on a global scale seems to be in direct line with the  earth's ever occurring"natural" climatic change patterns. History shows  numerous ice ages, when the planet cooled, to corresponding heating up  periods, over billions of years. This has always occurred. It is the  nature of our planet and cannot be influenced by what man can or cannot  do. On the other hand, the impact of humans is a future projection,  well-founded on scientific modelling. 
 
 
 

The true position, despite all the  comments about what the current fires mean in a climate change scenario,  is nobody can tell if there is any connection.
 
 
 

What I can tell you with absolute  certainty is that these fires, as bad as they were, are no more intense,  widespread, dangerous or unexpected in outcome, too many previous and  historic events. There is no accurate method to measure such outcomes.  However, it is possible to look at prevailing conditions and  contributing factors to seek patterns or influential factors.  
 
 
 

Take a look at the following comparative  data, much of which has been ignored by the frantic argument to directly  link man-made climate change to the outbreak and effects of these latest  fires. I detail some of the arguments I have heard go unchallenged or  are simply ignored and unreported, particularly by the ABC who are the  appointed official national disaster communications service.  
 
 
 

This the first time such fires have been  rated as catastrophic. True, but not because they were rated any worse  than many previous fires. In 2009, following the bush-fire inquiry, the  defined categories of fire were renamed. Catastrophic was introduced as  the most severe warning. So this description was never intended to make  people think they were the worst fires ever. I have heard many media  reports entrench this mistake.
 
 
 

The fires are occurring earlier because  of climate extending the summer risk. Can only be applicable in the  North. However, NSW has a long history of November and December  bush-fires. In 1944, the Blue Mountains lost 27 homes and other property  in November. Since then, I can recall at least 3 other similarly timed  events in NSW. So this year was not unique, as has been strongly  inferred by many reporters. In southern areas, January and February have  historically been prone to outbreaks. These fires are the most  widespread and worst ever. They certainly were disastrous. However, it  is impossible to compare unless it can be based on raw data…. Have more  lives been lost than ever before. No, although 1 is far too many, in  2009, 173 people died. In 1983, 75 people died. In 1962, 62 people died.  In that decade one of the victims in Eltham North was George Crowe, my  Grandfather and Grandma's father in law. In 1967, it was reported that  2,600 square kms of land was devastated in just 5 hours (Just try to  imagine that ferocity). In 2009 there were 2030 homes destroyed and in  1983 there were 6,000 homes and other buildings destroyed. Does this  define which fire was the worst? NO. All fires are bad but to try and  claim the current fires are the worst ever is a blatant disregard for  historical fact. Worse still, it is a deliberate attempt to scare people  into accepting the fanatical side of the global warming argument, by  accepting radical changes to our economy, power generation and mining  {let alone agriculture and transport} must occur right now and in a  premature manner. The so-called re-definition of the predicted changes  into an emergency is a way to virtually destroy our entire way of life.  
 
 
 

The fires were started as a result of  climate changed conditions. Clearly wrong. 80% of fires were started by  people either deliberately or accidentally lighting them. Dry lightning  strikes have been long recorded and are nothing  new.
 
 
 

What has our Media and ABC generally  ignored? One of the clearest data-based facts, reported out of the 2009  Inquiry, was the finding that fire intensity is proportional to and  severely aggravated by fire loads created by undergrowth and forest  floor debris accumulation. We can't control wind and heat but we can  control fuel load. Ask any active Rural or Country serving fireman what  they think of this hazard. Then ask your Green Party representative, why  they have influenced the management of National Park maintenance, as  well as local government reserves, to leave far too much of the forest  floor intact at any cost. Winter back burning, firewood removal and  general debris clearance have been widely restricted by stupid laws.  They argue it preserves natural ecosystems that rely on such decaying  material. Well, systematic removal of this fuel load may well disrupt  some Eco-systems, consider this; A bush-fire positively destroys them  all. 
 
 
 

The only identifiable and the recently  introduced risk factor is the environmental law changes that have  impacted a fire's intensity potential and capacity to burn faster and  hotter. 
 
 
 

Find this hard to believe, Go into a  forest and try setting fire to a living gum tree with a match. Now stoop  down and see if you get any better results from the dead and therefore  dry undergrowth at your feet. This is the effect ember spread has on  adjoining bush-land. 
 
 
 

There is much more to say about bringing  sanity back into discussions and I have my own opinion that if you  believe the science of global warming, stick to the science and ignore  the fanatical self-professed experts, like some of the current crop of  Green Party politicians and shrieking media, self-appointed, experts.  No, before it can be said. I was not self-appointed in my former career  positions. 
 
 
 

I can only reflect that the handful of  ex-firemen who were paraded before the media, may have had other  agendas. The spokesman listed his current occupation as a "Climate  Change Consultant". Another said outright, on camera, that fires have  always been linked to climate change. I prefer to listen to our  Indigenous community who talk of bush-fire management over thousands of  years. - oops before any hint of an industrial age, meat production or  mining.